Trading Analysis Report: TTD
- Analysis date: 2026-06-01
- Processed decision: Buy
- Price Target: 25
I. Analyst Team Reports
Market Analyst
Market Report
The Trade Desk (TTD) traded at $21.56 on May 29, 2026. yfinance showed a 52-week range of $19.74-$91.45, a 50-day average of $22.33, and a 200-day average of $36.05.
The stock has been heavily reset. The local yfinance history showed a -71.3% one-year return and -42.8% YTD return.
StockAnalysis placed TTD in the AI stock universe. The AI connection is direct: The Trade Desk uses AI for programmatic ad decisioning, Koa optimization, Koa Agents, predictive clearing, relevance scoring, budget optimization, measurement, and campaign performance.
Market read: TTD is no longer priced like a hyper-growth stock, but growth has slowed. Use Buy with a $25 target, close to the yfinance mean target of $25.34 and median target of $24.50.
Sentiment Analyst
Sentiment Report
Sentiment is recovering from a deep selloff but remains cautious.
Q1 2026 revenue was $689 million, up 12% year over year. GAAP net income was $40 million, net income margin was 6%, and GAAP diluted EPS was $0.08.
Adjusted EBITDA was $206 million, adjusted EBITDA margin was 30%, non-GAAP net income was $134 million, and non-GAAP diluted EPS was $0.28.
Customer retention remained above 95%, as it has for more than a decade. That supports the platform moat, even while revenue growth has decelerated.
Sentiment read: Buy because expectations are much lower after the drawdown, but the target should remain modest until revenue growth reaccelerates.
News Analyst
News Report
The key current source is The Trade Desk's Q1 2026 earnings release.
Revenue was $689 million, compared with $616 million in Q1 2025, representing 12% year-over-year growth. Adjusted EBITDA was $206 million, compared with $208 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA margin declined to 30% from 34%.
Q2 2026 guidance calls for revenue of at least $750 million and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $260 million.
The company announced Koa Agents, agentic AI capabilities for media planning, buying, optimization, and measurement across the open internet, with Stagwell as the first partner.
Other product and partnership items include OpenTTD, OpenAds adoption by publishers including AccuWeather, BuzzFeed, The Guardian, Hearst, Newsweek, People Inc., and Ziff Davis, LinkedIn selecting The Trade Desk as its first DSP partner for activation of B2B data for CTV, and retail media integrations with Pacvue, Skai, and Dollar General.
News read: the business is still innovating, but Q1 growth and EBITDA margin show the market was right to lower expectations.
Fundamentals Analyst
Fundamentals Report
TTD fundamentals show high gross margins, strong cash generation, and a much lower valuation after the selloff.
yfinance showed market cap of approximately $10.14 billion, enterprise value of approximately $9.15 billion, total revenue of approximately $2.97 billion, operating cash flow of approximately $1.09 billion, free cash flow of approximately $569.1 million, total cash of approximately $1.41 billion, and total debt of approximately $423.6 million.
The same snapshot showed gross margin of 77.8%, operating margin of 9.7%, profit margin of 14.6%, trailing P/E of 24.50x, forward P/E of 10.03x, and price/sales of 3.41x.
The 2025 Form 10-K says The Trade Desk is a global leader in advertising technology. Its platform depth, AI capabilities, and rich ecosystem of inventory, publisher, and data partner integrations support reach and decisioning for clients.
Fundamental read: Buy because free cash flow and net cash reduce downside risk, but slower growth and lower adjusted EBITDA margin limit upside conviction.
II. Research Team Decision
Bull Researcher
Bull Research
The bull case is that TTD remains a leading independent demand-side platform with a large open-internet opportunity, strong retention, AI-enabled product depth, and a reset valuation.
Customer retention stayed above 95% in Q1 2026. Q2 guidance calls for revenue of at least $750 million, indicating sequential growth from Q1's $689 million.
Koa Agents expands TTD's AI role beyond bid optimization into planning, buying, optimization, and measurement. The 10-K describes Koa as the platform's AI co-pilot, supporting predictive clearing, ad impression relevance scoring, measurement and forecasting, budget optimization, and KPI scoring.
TTD also repurchased approximately $164 million of Class A common stock in Q1 and had $327 million authorized and available as of March 31, 2026.
Bull conclusion: TTD can work if the market accepts a more mature but cash-generative AI ad-tech growth profile.
Bear Researcher
Bear Research
The bear case is that TTD's growth premium has broken, and the company still faces competitive and advertising-cycle pressure.
Revenue growth was 12% in Q1 2026, below the 25% growth rate shown for Q1 2025 in the company's comparison table. Adjusted EBITDA margin declined to 30% from 34%.
The stock is still below its $36.05 200-day average and far below its $91.45 52-week high, showing that investors remain skeptical about the durability of growth.
The 10-K risk framework includes macro advertising demand, client retention, competition from large platforms such as Google and Amazon, stock-based compensation, dual-class governance, and execution risk around platform upgrades and AI investments.
Bear conclusion: TTD could remain range-bound if Q2 only meets guidance, if CTV/open internet share gains slow, or if AI features do not translate into faster spend growth.
Research Manager
Research Manager Synthesis
The bull case is high retention, strong cash generation, net cash, Koa/Koa Agents AI capabilities, CTV partnerships, OpenAds adoption, and a reset valuation.
The bear case is slower growth, adjusted EBITDA margin compression, ad-cycle exposure, platform competition, and a broken long-term stock trend.
The correct conclusion is Buy, but with a conservative target. The $25 target is close to the yfinance mean target of $25.34 and median target of $24.50, reflecting upside from the latest price without assuming a fast return to historical multiples.
Synthesis: assign Buy with a $25 target.
III. Trading Team Plan
Trader
Trader View
TTD is slightly below its $22.33 50-day average and well below its $36.05 200-day average. The stock remains close to its $19.74 52-week low.
Upside trigger: Q2 revenue materially above $750 million, adjusted EBITDA above $260 million, evidence of Koa Agents adoption, stronger CTV growth, or improved open-internet advertiser demand.
Downside trigger: Q2 revenue below guidance, adjusted EBITDA margin pressure, weak customer retention, slower advertiser spend, or evidence that large platform competition is taking share.
Trading plan: Buy with a $25 6-12 month base-case target, and reassess if the stock cannot reclaim the 50-day average after the next earnings update.
IV. Risk Management Team Decision
Aggressive Analyst
Aggressive Risk View
Aggressive investors can buy TTD as a reset AI-enabled ad-tech compounder.
The key risk is that the market has moved the stock into a value-trap debate because growth has slowed.
Aggressive conclusion: Buy.
Conservative Analyst
Conservative Risk View
Conservative investors may wait for proof that Q2 and second-half growth are reaccelerating.
Cash generation and net cash are attractive, but advertising demand is cyclical and competition is intense.
Conservative conclusion: Hold for risk-sensitive accounts; Buy only for investors comfortable with ad-tech cyclicality.
Neutral Analyst
Neutral Risk View
The neutral view is modestly positive.
TTD has enough cash flow, retention, and AI product depth to justify upside from current levels, but the stock needs better growth evidence before a larger target is credible.
Neutral conclusion: Buy with a conservative target.
V. Portfolio Manager Decision
Portfolio Manager
Portfolio Manager Decision
Rating: Buy Price Target: 25
Horizon: 6-12 months Current Price Reference: $21.56 on 2026-05-29
The Trade Desk is rated Buy. TTD is included in the web-researched AI queue because it is an AI-enabled programmatic advertising platform using Koa, Koa Agents, predictive clearing, relevance scoring, measurement, forecasting, budget optimization, and campaign performance optimization across the open internet.
The latest major financial update is Q1 2026 results. Revenue was $689 million, up 12% year over year from $616 million. GAAP net income was $40 million, net income margin was 6%, and GAAP diluted EPS was $0.08.
Adjusted EBITDA was $206 million, adjusted EBITDA margin was 30%, non-GAAP net income was $134 million, and non-GAAP diluted EPS was $0.28. Adjusted EBITDA margin declined from 34% in Q1 2025, so the margin trend is a key watch item.
Customer retention remained above 95%, as it has for more than a decade. The company used approximately $164 million of cash to repurchase Class A common stock in Q1 2026 and had $327 million authorized and available for repurchases as of March 31, 2026.
Q2 2026 guidance calls for revenue of at least $750 million and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $260 million.
The AI catalyst is Koa Agents. The company announced agentic AI capabilities for media planning, buying, optimization, and measurement across the open internet, with Stagwell as the first partner. The 2025 Form 10-K describes Koa as the platform's AI co-pilot, with AI capabilities used across predictive clearing, ad impression relevance scoring, measurement and forecasting, budget optimization, and KPI scoring.
Other current product and partnership signals include OpenTTD, OpenAds publisher adoption by the first wave of publishers, LinkedIn selecting The Trade Desk as its first DSP partner for B2B data activation in CTV, and retail media integrations with Pacvue, Skai, and Dollar General.
yfinance showed a latest price of $21.56, market cap of approximately $10.14 billion, enterprise value of approximately $9.15 billion, 52-week range of $19.74-$91.45, total revenue of approximately $2.97 billion, gross margin of 77.8%, operating margin of 9.7%, profit margin of 14.6%, operating cash flow of approximately $1.09 billion, free cash flow of approximately $569.1 million, total cash of approximately $1.41 billion, total debt of approximately $423.6 million, trailing P/E of 24.50x, forward P/E of 10.03x, price/sales of 3.41x, mean analyst target of $25.34, and median analyst target of $24.50.
The main risks are slower programmatic ad growth, macro advertising cyclicality, adjusted EBITDA margin pressure, competition from large platforms such as Google and Amazon, client retention risk, stock-based compensation, dual-class governance, execution risk around Kokai/Koa/OpenAds, and the possibility that AI features do not translate into faster advertiser spend.
The $25 target is intentionally conservative and close to the yfinance mean and median analyst targets. Buy is appropriate because the stock has reset sharply, valuation is no longer extreme, cash flow is strong, and AI product depth remains strategically relevant, but the target avoids assuming a rapid return to former growth multiples.