Trading Analysis Report: OI
- Analysis date: 2026-05-31
- Processed decision: Buy
- Price Target: 13
I. Analyst Team Reports
Market Analyst
Market Report
O-I Glass (OI) closed at $8.75 on May 29, 2026. yfinance showed a 52-week range of $8.00-$16.91, a 50-day average of $9.83, and a 200-day average of $12.63.
Momentum is weak. The local yfinance history showed a -33.3% one-year return and -42.3% YTD return.
The valuation and target setup are attractive. yfinance showed a mean target of $13.11, median target of $14.00, low target of $10.00, high target of $15.00, and nine analyst opinions.
Valuation is low: forward P/E was 4.61x, price/book 1.03x, EV/revenue 0.96x, and EV/EBITDA 6.44x.
Market read: OI is a cyclical value turnaround with meaningful target-price upside. Assign Buy with a $13 target.
Sentiment Analyst
Sentiment Report
Sentiment is mixed but improving enough to support a value Buy.
The official Q1 release showed weak earnings: adjusted EPS was $0.05 versus $0.40 a year earlier, and segment operating profit fell to $142 million from $209 million.
Management also revised 2026 guidance lower, citing energy inflation and a challenging European environment.
However, the share price already reflects a lot of stress. yfinance shows the stock near its 52-week low, with every listed target above the latest close.
Sentiment read: near-term sentiment is cautious, but valuation and target support justify Buy for investors who can tolerate cyclicality.
News Analyst
News Report
The key current source is O-I Glass' April 28, 2026 Q1 results release.
Q1 net sales were $1.540 billion, down from $1.567 billion a year earlier.
Reported net loss attributable to the company was $0.48 per diluted share, compared with a $0.10 loss a year earlier. Adjusted earnings were $0.05 per share, down from $0.40.
Segment operating profit fell to $142 million from $209 million, and reported earnings before income taxes were a $53 million loss.
The positive point was cash flow: adjusted free cash flow was $42 million, versus -$3 million a year earlier.
Management revised 2026 guidance to adjusted EBITDA of $1.125-$1.225 billion, adjusted EPS of $1.00-$1.50, and free cash flow of $50-$150 million.
News read: Q1 was weak, but guidance still supports earnings power above the current stock price.
Fundamentals Analyst
Fundamentals Report
O-I Glass is a leveraged packaging cyclical with depressed valuation.
yfinance showed trailing revenue of $6.399 billion, EBITDA of $953 million, operating cash flow of $477 million, free cash flow of about $128 million, cash of $317 million, and total debt of $4.960 billion.
The official Q1 release showed lower sales and lower segment operating profit, but positive adjusted free cash flow and continued 2026 EBITDA guidance above $1.1 billion.
The main constraint is leverage. Enterprise value is much larger than equity value because debt is high, so earnings misses can create sharp equity volatility.
Fundamental read: Buy is justified by low multiples and target upside, but only with clear acknowledgment of debt and European demand risk.
II. Research Team Decision
Bull Researcher
Bull Research
The bull case is valuation.
OI trades at 4.61x forward earnings and 6.44x EV/EBITDA, while yfinance's mean target of $13.11 and median target of $14.00 sit well above the $8.75 latest close.
Management still guides to $1.125-$1.225 billion of adjusted EBITDA and $50-$150 million of free cash flow in 2026.
Adjusted free cash flow improved to $42 million in Q1 from -$3 million a year earlier.
Bull conclusion: OI can rerate toward $13 if Europe stabilizes and free cash flow tracks guidance.
Bear Researcher
Bear Research
The bear case is that the earnings reset is real.
Q1 adjusted EPS fell to $0.05 from $0.40, segment operating profit fell by $67 million, and net sales declined year over year.
The 2026 guidance was revised lower from the original outlook, and the Q1 presentation called out a challenging European environment.
Debt remains high at about $4.96 billion in yfinance, so even modest operating misses can pressure equity value.
Bear conclusion: Buy should be sized as a cyclical value position, not a low-risk compounder.
Research Manager
Research Manager Synthesis
The bull case is low valuation, positive free cash flow, substantial target-price upside, and still-material EBITDA guidance.
The bear case is weak Q1 earnings, reduced 2026 guidance, European pressure, and high debt.
The correct conclusion is Buy, but the target should be $13, below the yfinance median target of $14, to reflect execution risk.
Synthesis: assign Buy with a $13 target.
III. Trading Team Plan
Trader
Trader View
OI is a contrarian value trade.
The stock is below both the $9.83 50-day average and $12.63 200-day average, so technical momentum is poor.
Upside trigger: Europe stabilizes, adjusted EBITDA trends toward guidance, free cash flow remains positive, and the stock recovers above the 50-day average.
Downside trigger: further guidance cuts, weaker volumes, higher energy costs, or debt concerns.
Trading plan: Buy selectively with a $13 6-12 month target.
IV. Risk Management Team Decision
Aggressive Analyst
Aggressive Risk View
Aggressive investors can buy OI as a leveraged cyclical value recovery.
The upside comes from low valuation and analyst targets well above the current price.
The risk is that high debt amplifies downside if EBITDA disappoints.
Aggressive conclusion: Buy, but keep position size disciplined.
Conservative Analyst
Conservative Risk View
Conservative investors should be cautious because leverage and cyclicality are material.
OI is cheap, but Q1 earnings were weak and guidance was reduced.
Conservative conclusion: Buy only for investors comfortable with cyclical and balance-sheet risk.
Neutral Analyst
Neutral Risk View
The neutral view is that OI's valuation already discounts a difficult year, but execution must improve.
The positives are low multiples, positive adjusted free cash flow, and target upside. The negatives are weak Q1 earnings, lower guidance, European risk, and high debt.
The $13 target balances those factors.
Neutral conclusion: Buy.
V. Portfolio Manager Decision
Portfolio Manager
Portfolio Manager Decision
Rating: Buy Price Target: 13
Horizon: 6-12 months Current Price Reference: $8.75 close on 2026-05-29
O-I Glass is rated Buy as a contrarian value stock. The Q1 2026 report was weak, but the current price and valuation already reflect substantial stress.
Q1 net sales were $1.540 billion, down from $1.567 billion a year earlier. Reported net loss attributable to the company was $0.48 per diluted share, and adjusted EPS was $0.05, down from $0.40.
Segment operating profit fell to $142 million from $209 million, and the company revised 2026 guidance lower to adjusted EBITDA of $1.125-$1.225 billion, adjusted EPS of $1.00-$1.50, and free cash flow of $50-$150 million.
The positive offset is valuation. yfinance showed a latest price of $8.75, forward P/E of 4.61x, EV/EBITDA of 6.44x, mean target of $13.11, and median target of $14.00.
The main risks are high debt, European demand and energy cost pressure, volume weakness, guidance cuts, and cyclical multiple compression.
The $13 target is slightly below the yfinance mean and median targets to reflect risk. Buy is justified by target upside and low valuation, with leverage risk acknowledged.