Trading Analysis Report: MTSI
- Analysis date: 2026-05-31
- Processed decision: Hold
- Price Target: 390
I. Analyst Team Reports
Market Analyst
Market Report
MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI) closed at $364.64 on May 29, 2026. yfinance showed a 52-week range of $118.16-$418.90, a 50-day average of $295.13, and a 200-day average of $204.22.
The stock remains in a powerful trend. The local yfinance history showed a 199.8% one-year return and 108.4% YTD return.
StockAnalysis ranked MTSI #23 on its semiconductor industry list by market capitalization. MACOM is relevant to the semiconductor queue because it supplies RF, microwave, analog and mixed-signal, and optical semiconductor technologies for Industrial and Defense, Data Center, and Telecommunications markets.
Market read: the business momentum is strong, but valuation is already elevated. Use Hold with a $390 target.
Sentiment Analyst
Sentiment Report
Sentiment toward MTSI is strong after fiscal Q2 2026 results and Q3 guidance.
MACOM reported revenue of $289.0 million, up 22.5% year over year and 6.4% sequentially. GAAP gross margin improved to 56.9%, and adjusted gross margin improved to 58.5%.
Adjusted income from operations was $80.5 million, or 27.8% of revenue. Adjusted net income was $84.3 million, or $1.09 diluted EPS.
Management guided fiscal Q3 revenue to $331-$339 million, adjusted gross margin to 59.0%-60.0%, and adjusted diluted EPS to $1.31-$1.37.
Sentiment read: Hold, because the company is executing well but the stock has already rerated aggressively.
News Analyst
News Report
The key current source is MACOM's fiscal Q2 2026 financial results release.
Revenue was $289.0 million, compared with $235.9 million in the prior-year quarter and $271.6 million in the prior quarter.
GAAP income from operations was $50.8 million, or 17.6% of revenue, compared with $34.9 million, or 14.8% of revenue, in the prior-year quarter.
GAAP net income was $46.3 million, or $0.60 diluted EPS.
Adjusted gross margin was 58.5%, and adjusted income from operations was $80.5 million, or 27.8% of revenue.
MACOM said it expected strong revenue growth and profitability in the second half of fiscal 2026.
News read: MTSI is delivering growth, margin expansion, and a stronger second-half outlook.
Fundamentals Analyst
Fundamentals Report
MTSI fundamentals are strong, but the valuation requires sustained execution.
yfinance showed market cap of approximately $27.82 billion, enterprise value of approximately $27.57 billion, total revenue of approximately $1.07 billion, free cash flow of approximately $81.5 million, operating cash flow of approximately $251.6 million, total cash of approximately $664.9 million, and total debt of approximately $414.0 million.
The same snapshot showed trailing P/E of 156.50x, forward P/E of 53.27x, and price/sales of 25.91x. Those multiples leave limited margin of safety if revenue or margins disappoint.
Official balance sheet data showed $98.5 million of cash and $566.3 million of short-term investments as of April 3, 2026, with no short-term debt and $340.2 million of long-term debt obligations.
Fundamental read: Hold because MACOM's growth, margins, and end-market exposure are attractive, but valuation is demanding after a large rally.
II. Research Team Decision
Bull Researcher
Bull Research
The bull case is that MACOM keeps compounding through high-value RF, analog, mixed-signal, microwave, and optical semiconductor demand.
The company serves Industrial and Defense, Data Center, and Telecommunications markets and more than 6,000 customers annually.
Fiscal Q3 guidance of $331-$339 million implies a material sequential step-up from Q2 revenue of $289.0 million. Adjusted gross margin guidance of 59.0%-60.0% also points to continued margin quality.
Adjusted income from operations was 27.8% of revenue in Q2, up from 25.4% in the prior-year quarter.
Bull conclusion: MTSI can move toward $390 if Q3 growth and margin guidance are met or exceeded.
Bear Researcher
Bear Research
The bear case is valuation and cyclicality.
yfinance showed a 199.8% one-year return, 108.4% YTD return, trailing P/E of 156.50x, forward P/E of 53.27x, and price/sales of 25.91x.
Those multiples are high for a semiconductor supplier exposed to end-market cycles, defense program timing, telecom capex variability, data center inventory cycles, and acquisition/integration execution risk.
The stock also remains below its $418.90 52-week high after a sharp recent move, so near-term volatility is elevated.
Bear conclusion: Hold is appropriate because the business is strong but the risk/reward is no longer obviously favorable.
Research Manager
Research Manager Synthesis
The bull case is strong Q2 growth, improving GAAP and adjusted margins, robust Q3 guidance, exposure to data center and defense demand, broad customer coverage, and strong cash plus short-term investments.
The bear case is high valuation, a large one-year stock move, semiconductor cyclicality, end-market volatility, and the need to sustain second-half growth.
The correct conclusion is Hold. The $390 target is close to the yfinance analyst target mean and reflects modest upside without ignoring valuation risk.
Synthesis: assign Hold with a $390 target.
III. Trading Team Plan
Trader
Trader View
MTSI is a high-quality semiconductor momentum stock with limited margin for disappointment.
The stock is above the $295.13 50-day average and $204.22 200-day average, confirming strong trend support. It is below the $418.90 52-week high, leaving potential rebound room if Q3 execution is clean.
Upside trigger: fiscal Q3 revenue above $339 million, adjusted gross margin above 60.0%, adjusted EPS above $1.37, and continued data center or defense demand strength.
Downside trigger: revenue below the $331-$339 million guide, margin pressure, weaker telecom demand, defense program delays, or a high-multiple semiconductor selloff.
Trading plan: Hold with a $390 6-12 month base-case target.
IV. Risk Management Team Decision
Aggressive Analyst
Aggressive Risk View
Aggressive investors may hold MTSI for semiconductor momentum and data center, optical, RF, and defense exposure.
The risk is that the stock has already priced in a large part of the Q3 growth step-up.
Aggressive conclusion: Hold.
Conservative Analyst
Conservative Risk View
Conservative investors should not chase MTSI after a very large rally.
The business is high quality, but the valuation leaves less downside protection if guidance slips.
Conservative conclusion: Hold.
Neutral Analyst
Neutral Risk View
The neutral view is constructive on fundamentals and cautious on valuation.
MACOM's Q2 execution and Q3 guidance are strong, but the stock's multiple and price momentum make patience appropriate.
Neutral conclusion: Hold.
V. Portfolio Manager Decision
Portfolio Manager
Portfolio Manager Decision
Rating: Hold Price Target: 390
Horizon: 6-12 months Current Price Reference: $364.64 close on 2026-05-29
MACOM Technology Solutions is rated Hold. MTSI is a semiconductor company in the web-researched semiconductor universe, with products spanning RF, microwave, analog and mixed-signal, and optical semiconductor technologies.
MACOM reported fiscal Q2 2026 revenue of $289.0 million, up 22.5% from $235.9 million in the prior-year quarter and up 6.4% from $271.6 million in the prior quarter.
GAAP gross margin was 56.9%, compared with 55.2% in the prior-year quarter and 55.9% in the prior quarter.
GAAP income from operations was $50.8 million, or 17.6% of revenue, compared with $34.9 million, or 14.8% of revenue, in the prior-year quarter.
GAAP net income was $46.3 million, or $0.60 diluted EPS.
Adjusted gross margin was 58.5%, compared with 57.5% in the prior-year quarter and 57.6% in the prior quarter. Adjusted income from operations was $80.5 million, or 27.8% of revenue. Adjusted net income was $84.3 million, or $1.09 diluted EPS.
Management guided fiscal Q3 2026 revenue to $331-$339 million, adjusted gross margin to 59.0%-60.0%, and adjusted diluted EPS to $1.31-$1.37.
MACOM designs and manufactures high-performance semiconductor products for Industrial and Defense, Data Center, and Telecommunications markets. The company serves more than 6,000 customers annually with RF, microwave, analog and mixed-signal, and optical semiconductor technologies.
yfinance showed a latest close of $364.64, market cap of approximately $27.82 billion, enterprise value of approximately $27.57 billion, 52-week range of $118.16-$418.90, trailing P/E of 156.50x, forward P/E of 53.27x, price/sales of 25.91x, total revenue of approximately $1.07 billion, free cash flow of approximately $81.5 million, operating cash flow of approximately $251.6 million, total cash of approximately $664.9 million, and total debt of approximately $414.0 million.
The main risks are high valuation, semiconductor cyclicality, data center demand swings, telecom capex variability, defense program timing, acquisition and integration risk, supply chain constraints, and a potential high-multiple semiconductor stock reset.
The $390 target gives modest upside but reflects limited margin of safety after a large rally. Hold is appropriate.