Trading Analysis Report: IT
- Analysis date: 2026-05-31
- Processed decision: Hold
- Price Target: $170.00
I. Analyst Team Reports
Market Analyst
Market Analyst Report
Gartner closed at $162.20 on May 29, 2026, with an after-hours snapshot of $164.50. The stock is still far below its 52-week high of $434.12, but it has stabilized above the 50-day moving average. The market setup is therefore a damaged-quality recovery rather than a momentum breakout.
Investment Snapshot
| Metric | Latest value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| NYSE close (May 29, 2026) | $162.20 | Entry price for this rating and target. |
| After-hours snapshot | $164.50 | Confirms modest post-close support. |
| Market cap / enterprise value | $10.86B / $12.55B | Valuation reset is meaningful after the drawdown. |
| TTM revenue / net income | $6.47B / $740.64M | Gartner remains profitable despite weaker growth. |
| Trailing P/E / forward P/E | 16.03x / 10.58x | Earnings valuation is inexpensive if guidance holds. |
| P/S / EV-to-revenue | 1.68x / 1.94x | Sales valuation is no longer premium. |
| P/FCF / EV/FCF | 8.63x / 9.98x | Free-cash-flow valuation is a support point. |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.39x | Reasonable for a research and advisory model. |
| Cash / debt / net debt | $1.67B / $3.36B / about $1.69B | Balance sheet is leveraged but manageable. |
| TTM operating cash flow / FCF | $1.37B / $1.26B | Cash generation supports buybacks and debt service. |
| Gross / operating / profit margin | 68.99% / 20.50% / 11.44% | High-margin model remains intact. |
| Beta | 0.91 | Volatility is near market despite the large drawdown. |
| 52-week price change | -62.73% | Sentiment and multiple have already reset. |
| 50-day / 200-day moving average | $153.67 / $206.79 | Stock is above short-term trend but below long-term trend. |
| RSI | 59.14 | Momentum is constructive but not overbought. |
| Short interest | 10.00M shares / 14.93% of shares out | Skepticism is elevated and can amplify moves. |
| Analyst average target | $167.00 | Consensus upside is limited. |
| Analyst target range | $140-$203 | Reward exists, but downside cases remain credible. |
| Analyst consensus / count | Hold / 15 analysts | Street view is balanced. |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $1.511B | Down 1.5% reported and 4.3% FX neutral. |
| Q1 adjusted EPS | $3.32 | Up 11.4% year over year. |
| Q1 free cash flow | $371M | Up 28.7% year over year. |
| Q1 repurchases | $535M | Buybacks remain a major capital-return lever. |
| 2026 adjusted EPS guidance | At least $13.25 | Supports low forward earnings multiple. |
| 2026 FCF guidance | At least $1.160B | Supports the cash-flow value case. |
| Social mention rank | #24, 12 mentions | Interest is visible but not extreme. |
The market data support a balanced view. Gartner is cheap on earnings and free cash flow, and the stock has already absorbed a severe derating. However, analyst targets cluster near the current price, and the 200-day average remains well above spot.
Market conclusion: Hold. The price is low enough to avoid an Underweight call, but the current evidence does not yet justify a full Overweight.
Sentiment Analyst
Sentiment Analyst Report
Sentiment toward Gartner is mixed. Bulls see a high-margin research and advisory franchise that can keep converting earnings into cash and shrinking the share count. Bears see weak organic growth, pressure in Consulting, and a customer-renewal cycle that has not fully reaccelerated.
The StockNote queue signal is moderate: rank #24, mention rank #37, 12 mentions, and 37 upvotes. That is enough attention to warrant coverage, but it does not indicate a crowded retail squeeze thesis.
The positive sentiment factor is valuation after the selloff. A stock down more than 60% over 52 weeks, trading near 10-12x forward earnings and under 10x free cash flow, can attract value and quality investors if management keeps raising EPS and free-cash-flow guidance.
The negative sentiment factor is growth credibility. Contract value was only up 1.0% FX neutral, Global Technology Sales CV was up just 0.4%, and Consulting revenue declined. Gartner needs clearer evidence that subscription and client-retention trends can reaccelerate.
Sentiment conclusion: balanced. The stock has recovery ingredients, but investors still need stronger top-line proof.
News Analyst
News Analyst Report
Gartner's May 5, 2026 Q1 release was mixed. Reported revenue was $1.511 billion, down 1.5% year over year and down 4.3% FX neutral. Adjusted revenue was $1.492 billion, up 1.6% reported but down 1.4% FX neutral.
Profit and cash flow were better. Net income was $222 million, up 5.4%. Diluted EPS was $3.18, up 17.3%, and adjusted EPS was $3.32, up 11.4%. Adjusted EBITDA excluding the divested operation was $395 million, up 5.7%. Operating cash flow increased 24.7% to $391 million, and free cash flow increased 28.7% to $371 million.
Capital allocation was aggressive. Gartner repurchased 3.3 million shares for $535 million in Q1, and the board increased the repurchase authorization by $600 million in April 2026. This matters because share-count reduction is a major part of the EPS recovery thesis.
Segment news shows why the stock remains controversial. Insights revenue was $1.294 billion, up 3.1% reported but down 0.1% FX neutral. Conferences revenue rose 7.9% reported and 5.7% FX neutral. Consulting revenue fell 14.7% reported and 16.8% FX neutral.
The updated 2026 guidance was constructive: at least $6.405 billion of adjusted revenue, at least $1.545 billion of adjusted EBITDA excluding the divested operation, at least $13.25 of adjusted EPS, at least $1.160 billion of free cash flow, and roughly 69 million diluted shares.
News conclusion: the quarter supports a Hold. Earnings, free cash flow, and buybacks are good enough to stabilize the stock, but revenue and contract-value growth are not yet strong enough for a more aggressive rating.
Fundamentals Analyst
Fundamentals Analyst Report
Gartner's core fundamental attraction is a high-margin, asset-light advisory model. The company generated TTM revenue of $6.47 billion, net income of $740.64 million, and strong cash conversion. Gross margin near 69%, operating margin around 20%, and profit margin above 11% are attractive for a business services company.
Free cash flow is the key support. StockAnalysis shows TTM free cash flow of $1.26 billion, while the company guided 2026 free cash flow to at least $1.160 billion. Against a market cap near $10.86 billion, that creates a meaningful cash-flow yield.
The balance sheet is not risk-free but is manageable. Cash was about $1.67 billion and debt was about $3.36 billion, leaving net debt of roughly $1.69 billion. Interest coverage and cash generation make the leverage acceptable, but buybacks should not come at the expense of financial flexibility if growth weakens further.
The growth profile is the main weakness. Contract value growth of only 1.0% FX neutral is thin, client-enterprise metrics are not yet robust, and Consulting declined sharply in Q1. Gartner can produce EPS growth through buybacks and cost control, but the higher-quality rerating requires top-line and contract-value acceleration.
Fundamental conclusion: Gartner is cheap enough to hold, but the quality-growth story needs repair before moving to Overweight.
II. Research Team Decision
Bull Researcher
Bull Researcher View
The bull case is that Gartner has already been punished for a growth slowdown. The stock is down more than 60% over 52 weeks, yet the company still produces high margins, strong free cash flow, and significant earnings power.
Valuation supports upside. The stock trades near 10-12x forward earnings and below 10x free cash flow. If management delivers at least $13.25 of adjusted EPS and at least $1.160 billion of free cash flow in 2026, the current price leaves room for a recovery toward the high end of the analyst target range.
Capital allocation is another positive. Gartner repurchased $535 million of stock in Q1 and increased buyback authorization. With a smaller share count, even modest operating improvement can translate into stronger per-share results.
Bull conclusion: Gartner is a credible recovery candidate if contract value stabilizes and the market begins valuing the cash-flow yield rather than the recent revenue decline.
Bear Researcher
Bear Researcher View
The bear case is that low valuation may be a value trap if growth does not return. Q1 reported revenue declined 1.5%, FX-neutral revenue declined 4.3%, and adjusted revenue was still down 1.4% FX neutral. Contract value growth of 1.0% is not enough to show a strong subscription rebound.
Consulting is a clear weak point. Revenue declined 14.7% reported and 16.8% FX neutral. If enterprise discretionary spending remains pressured, Gartner may need more cost control to protect margins, which can limit reinvestment in future growth.
Short interest is elevated at nearly 15% of shares outstanding. That can create upside squeezes, but it also signals that sophisticated investors remain skeptical of the recovery path.
Bear conclusion: Gartner deserves a lower multiple until top-line growth and contract value reaccelerate. A Hold is more appropriate than a recovery-chasing Overweight.
Research Manager
Research Manager Decision
The research team recommends Hold for Gartner with a $170.00 price target.
The positive case is real: Gartner is profitable, cash-generative, cheap on forward earnings and free cash flow, and actively reducing the share count. The Q1 raise to adjusted EPS and free-cash-flow guidance supports stabilization after the severe drawdown.
The negative case is also real: reported revenue declined, FX-neutral adjusted revenue declined, contract value growth is only 1.0%, Consulting was weak, and analyst consensus is Hold with an average target near the current price.
The $170 target is modestly above the $162.20 close and near the consensus target. It gives credit for the cash-flow yield and buybacks without assuming a full multiple recovery before growth improves.
III. Trading Team Plan
Trader
Trader Plan
Trade stance: Hold / wait for clearer contract-value acceleration.
Price Target: $170.00
For new money, Gartner is not unattractive, but it is not a clean buy signal. The stock trades below the 200-day moving average and has valuation support, yet consensus upside is limited and growth metrics remain weak.
Existing holders can maintain exposure if position sizing is moderate. The stock's free-cash-flow yield and buybacks provide downside support, while high short interest can amplify recovery if management delivers another clean quarter.
A more constructive entry would require either a pullback toward the mid-$140s with intact guidance or evidence that contract value and Insights growth are reaccelerating. A break above the 200-day average with improving CV trends would justify revisiting Overweight.
IV. Risk Management Team Decision
Aggressive Analyst
Aggressive Risk View
Aggressive investors can make a recovery argument. Gartner has a quality brand, strong free cash flow, and a lower valuation after a steep selloff. If the market decides Q1 was the trough, the stock could move toward the $203 high target.
The risk is that the recovery thesis still lacks top-line confirmation. Revenue and FX-neutral adjusted revenue declined, and contract value growth remains thin. Aggressive exposure depends on the assumption that the EPS/FCF guide matters more than revenue weakness.
Aggressive conclusion: a tactical long is defensible only for investors willing to underwrite a turnaround in contract value. Position sizing should reflect high short interest and still-fragile sentiment.
Conservative Analyst
Conservative Risk View
Conservative investors should not treat the low multiple as sufficient by itself. Gartner has no dividend, debt exceeds cash, and the business is still showing weak reported revenue growth.
The quality of cash flow is a positive, and buybacks can support per-share value. However, conservative accounts should require evidence that revenue and contract value have stabilized before increasing exposure.
Conservative conclusion: Hold existing positions, avoid aggressive adds, and watch management's ability to convert the 2026 guidance into durable organic growth.
Neutral Analyst
Neutral Risk View
The neutral view fits the data best. Gartner is too cheap and cash-generative for Underweight, but the growth story is too impaired for Overweight.
The valuation case is supported by forward P/E, P/FCF, EV/EBITDA, and buybacks. The risk case is supported by revenue decline, thin contract value growth, Consulting weakness, and elevated short interest.
Neutral conclusion: Hold with a modestly positive target. Upside requires better contract-value evidence, while downside is limited by cash generation and the already-large drawdown.
V. Portfolio Manager Decision
Portfolio Manager
Portfolio Decision
Rating: Hold
Price Target: $170.00
Horizon/Risk Note: 6-12 month target; key risks are weak reported revenue growth, slow contract-value acceleration, Consulting pressure, high short interest, debt-funded capital allocation risk, and delayed recovery in enterprise advisory demand.
Gartner receives a Hold rating because the risk-reward is balanced. Q1 2026 showed strong EPS, free cash flow, and buybacks, and the company raised adjusted EPS and free-cash-flow guidance. The stock also trades at a much lower valuation after a severe 52-week drawdown.
The offset is that the top line is not yet fixed. Q1 revenue declined 1.5% reported and 4.3% FX neutral, adjusted revenue declined 1.4% FX neutral, and contract value grew only 1.0% FX neutral. Consulting revenue was also weak.
The $170.00 target is close to the captured consensus target and implies limited upside from $162.20. It recognizes Gartner's cash-flow support and buybacks while waiting for clearer evidence that contract value, Insights growth, and client retention can improve.